Since the 2017-18 season, I've kept very accurate (but not infallible) stats for everyone on the team, even going back to 2016-17 to recreate some basic stats based on publicly available data. At the end of each of the last two seasons I've crunched the numbers to see what they say about the team. Two big lessons have practically popped out of the page the past two years: Lesson One: Every wrestler, without exception, is better on offense than on defense. The following three charts show A) the best defender on the team (Far East Runner-Up), B) a .500 wrestler, and C) a new wrestler. Summary: controlling the action leads to higher success rates in scoring takedowns, but allowing your opponent to press the action gives them an advantage. Even the best shot defender on the team percentage-wise was under a 50% scoring success rate. The newby wrestler was not very successful at anything against experienced varsity opponents, but even he was five time better on offense than on defense. A) When the Far East #2 took a shot that led to points, he scored 81% of the time while the other wrestler got points the remaining 19%. When the opponent was the aggressor, our guy got points only 45% of the time; this was the best defensive scoring % on the team. B) This Mustang with about a 50/50 record was nearly as successful as the great wrestler on offense (75% - 81%), but his defense was much weaker (15% - 45%). This allowed aggressive opponents to score more points leading to more losses for the good guy. C) This new, first year wrestler struggled against varsity opponents, but even he was much more successful on the attack than on defense. Would you rather lose 4-6 (37%-63%) or 1-9 (7%-93%)? One keeps you within one lucky move of a win and one gets you tech'ed. Lesson Two: Numbers matter. What was the primary measurable that took us from 1-6 to 4-4 to 9-3 in dual meet records (or take your pick of any team stat) over the last three years? Of course having a better "backbone" (top two or so wrestlers) helps. The top two placewinners at Far East in 2016-17 were 4th (Ira) and 4th (Julian), in 2017-18 they were 2nd (Rin) and 2nd (Noah), and in 2018-19 we had 1st (Rin) and 1st (Zenon). However, better backbone wrestlers is NOT the prime factor in the team's increased success. The list below shows Far East medalists for the last three seasons. New wrestlers are underlined. You can see that from 2017 to 2018, essentially the same wrestlers just got better: Ira and Egan maintained position in tougher weight classes, Keiran and Zenon jumped in from being unranked to replace the graduated Julian, and Rin and Noah made the aforementioned improvements. From 2018 to 2019 it was almost exactly the same, with Ira, Egan, Rin, Keiran (injury), and Zenon improving on the previous year with Dani jumping in to replace the graduated Noah. So, what's the big difference? It's the new wrestlers! Just as Ira and Rin gave the team a boost at the 2017 Far East, Kyle, Katsumi, Take, and Michiru were the rocket fuel that launched the team into the top tier of contenders at the 2019 Far East. Far East Placewinners
Let's look at a different metric that makes the same point: it's the newbies and numbers that make for a successful team. When you give up forfeits at 5 weight classes, like we did in the 2017-18 season, your varsity wrestlers better pretty much all be awesome if you want to win any dual meets (see 29 Nov 2017 when we gave up 5 forfeits, but got 5 pins, each side got a tech, and we got a decision to eek out a 32-29 conference win over Yokota). That's what was holding back the 2016-17 and 2017-18 teams - too many holes in the lineup. The following chart shows the number of wrestlers in several categories and the relationship to varsity wins: - light blue: number with at least one varsity victory (e.g. Rin or Ira) - dark blue: number who were not on the team the previous year (i.e. "newbies") who appeared in at least one varsity match (e.g. Leila or Isak) - yellow: number of primarily JV wrestlers (e.g. Marin or Yo) - Red Trend Line: total number of varsity wins There is certainly some overlap in the three numbers-of-people categories. For example, Reuben had at least one varsity victory (light blue), he was not on the team the previous year and had at least one varsity match (dark blue), and he was a primarily JV wrestler (yellow). All of the "people" metrics have a very strong correlation to the "wins" metric. Even without the chart, if you figured that more people = more wins, you'd be right! As a matter of fact, the number of varsity wins per person over this three year period has been remarkably static, averaging out between 7.0 and 9.6. The more, the merrier!
There is, of course, a point of diminishing returns. For example having more people at the same weight class does not help get more wins for the team. The principle is especially applicable, however, at the lower and top weight classes and any other weight class where a hole has opened up. For example, we had six newbies filling varsity weight classes last year. That was HUGE! And having a JV or two at a weight class enables them to fill in when the varsity wrestler is out for some reason (sick, taking the ACT, etc.). We took 33 forfeits last year compared to only 12 the year before - that's nearly triple! Newbies lost by tech fall or decision a total of 27 times, saving the team 34 team points (compared to forfeit losses at the weight) over the course of the year. That's about a dual meet victory worth of team points. Add in all their wins (28 pins, 12 tech falls, 17 forfeits, 4 decisions), and it is readily apparent that having those six weight classes occupied by wrestlers not on the roster the previous year was the difference between a 4-4 season where the losses were over before they started, and a 9-3 season where none of the losses were unwinnable. That's a lot of writing, so here's the bottom line: more offense leads to more success for the individual, and more people leads to more success for the team.
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As the 2019-20 season draws near, let's take a look back at the remarkable progress the ASIJ Mustangs have made as a team over the last few years. After that we'll see what the numbers project for the upcoming season. Year: Overall Dual Meet Record (Team Points Scored-Allowed, Ave Scored-Allowed), Conference Dual Meet Record, Conference Tournament Place, Far East Individual Place, Far East Team Place (Division I schools) 2016-17*: 1-6 (97-273, 13.9-39.0), 1-4, #5/6, #10/15, #6/6 2017-18: 4-4 (186-263, 23.3-32.9), 3-2, #4/6, #6/15, #4/6 2018-19: 9-3 (494-210, 41.2-17.5), 4-1, #2/6, #3/14, #3/6 *Overall Dual Meet Record and points based on incomplete data Team Review: It's plain to see a strong upward trajectory for the Mustangs. When Ira and Rin were freshmen, they were part of a team that was an easy out for opponents. Their team overachieved for an even dual meet record and a winning conference record their sophomore year. Last year as juniors, their team achieved parity with conference bullies Kinnick and St. Mary's, earning a 2-2 record in 4 dual meets against the pair, and placing 3rd at a Far East where each of the top 3 teams would have traded places with each other if one match had gone differently for their team. 2019-20 Bold Predictions: Projecting wrestlers who recorded stats over the last two years into possible weight classes gives a notional lineup (see below left). These may be off on the high or low end of the weight classes, because I haven't seen, weighed, or talked about intentions with most of the returning wrestlers. The takeaway is that we have a really good looking team, but have some serious holes to fill in the lower and top weight classes. Some good peer recruiting will be required to fill those holes, and I'm sure there are some incoming freshmen (or maybe even a move-in/new wrestler or two...or more) who will add to the team. The graphic (see below right) is the 2020 Far East Tournament Power Index. This is based on a U.S. college ranking model where you start with the tournament points scored at last year's Far East and subtract the points scored by wrestlers on each team who graduated or moved out. Kubasaki is the clear leader in terms of returning points, but ASIJ is projected to be 2nd based on this model. You can bet St. Mary's and Kinnick will restock and be tough as usual, and don't forget that Edgren beat us in a close dual meet last year. Exciting to be projected as 2nd - but we'll need everyone to be better than they were last year to shoot for a championship!
After a tremendous 2018-19 season, many Mustangs have shown a desire to turn the so-close-you-can-taste-it finishes into actually savoring the sweet taste of championships. I'll post some of the summer activities of ASIJ wrestlers in an attempt to give a peek into their commitment to individual improvement and, therefore, even better team results.
This post will cover sophomores who recorded wrestling stats last year (2018-19). Last year's freshman class was a huge, huge addition to the team, adding 9 wrestlers who secured 74 wins across varsity and JV/exhibition matches. Besides Kyle (8 overall wins), who moved out, all are back at school this year. Their continued growth and improvement (and some peer recruiting along the way) could make for the greatest senior class seen in decades (ever?) at ASIJ. As for now, however, we'll focus on the coming season. See below for individual posts on Take, Michiru, and Katsumi, who were already critical varsity contributors as freshmen. The statistics listed are as follows: Overall (Varsity + JV) Record (win %), JV Record (win %), JV Pins, JV Takedowns Sophomores: Marin: 2-2 (.500), 2-2 (.500), 1, 4 Girls high school wrestling is experiencing dramatic growth in the US (+13.5%, +16.1%, +17.4% increase in the last three years, 27 straight years of growth). ASIJ has followed the trend and had girls on the team for at least the last three years. She continued the tradition as a female freshman Mustang putting up some nice numbers in limited action. She pinned an opponent and, on the defensive end, maintained membership in the never-been-pinned club. Her return will help new girl wrestlers this year, her own results will very likely be even better than last year, and she might even have a role on varsity, depending on how all the lower weights shake out. Kai D: 1-4 (.200), 1-4 (.200), 0, 3 His first year in high school wrestling coincided with the first year of Kai H (junior), giving parents and fans trouble remembering names ;-). His season featured a lot of action before the Christmas break, including a dominating shutout victory and a close 2-pt decision loss to Kinnick's 115 pound varsity wrestler in an exhibition match. Working out in the off season has put more muscle on his bones. Adding to that, an increase in technique knowledge and mastery will undoubtedly lead to a season that builds on last year's base, and his position in the lower weights may prove very helpful, even critical, to the team. Leila: 6-5 (.545), 6-3 (.667), 3 (#2), 14 (#1) Another entry on the girls teams, the multiple-sport athlete showed her skill, strength, and determination while racking up the most pins of any returning JV/exhibition Mustang. Her willingness to go in varsity matches and to wrestle boys throughout the year solidified her place in the minds of her teammates and coaches, earning her the JV Sportsmanship award. While the US now has 30+ colleges with women's wrestling programs, a girls-only league is not likely in the Kanto Plain conference this year, so I project a performance similar to last year - dominating the girls and holding her own with any boys brave enough to take her on. Luke: 3-9 (.250), 3-7 (.300), 1, 9 (#4) Wrestling behind graduated seniors Josh and Egan last year, he faced varsity wrestlers in 9 of his 12 exhibition matches last year, coming away with wins against two of them in his first year wrestling. Nearly hitting double digit takedowns, scoring a pin, seeking out extra matches at a tournament during ASIJ's winter break, and taking on two (official) varsity matches gave him some good mat time and experience to build on. He attended a technique wrestling camp, practiced with a local Japanese club, and grew a lot over the summer, setting him up for higher expectations in the 141-158 range this year. Depending on how the weights shake out, I predict some good varsity contributions or a strong mainly-JV year. Shawn: 7-5 (.583), 7-3 (.700), 5 (#1), 11 (#2) He showed improvement at 148 behind Rin and Kieran last year, starting the season 2-3, but finishing 5-0 with five straight pins (most pins), all against perennial power Kinnick, some as much as 22 pounds heavier earned him the JV MVP award. Showing some definite potential, he joined Zenon, Egan, and Luke at the Yokota tournament during ASIJ's break, took on every wrestle-off opportunity available, and snapped up every available varsity chance. He attended a technique focused wrestling camp and worked with a Japanese club team as he grew a ton over the summer. Projecting somewhere in the 148-168 range, his increased skills should propel him to a varsity spot where he's competitive and possibly even tournament placewinner finishes. After a tremendous 2018-19 season, many Mustangs have shown a desire to turn the so-close-you-can-taste-it finishes into actually savoring the sweet taste of championships. I'll post some of the summer activities of ASIJ wrestlers in an attempt to give a peek into their commitment to individual improvement and, therefore, even better team results.
Katsumi - being thrown into the deep end as a freshman on the varsity lineup with with practically no prior experience, he demonstrated that he can swim with the sharks just fine. A typical progression for new wrestlers might look something like 5-15 first year, 10-10 second year, and 15-5 third year. However, at 108, a weight class ASIJ forfeited every match at the year prior, he posted an even varsity record. He was especially clutch in dual meets, contributing the 4th most team points among returning wrestlers (35) and giving some breathing room to the weight classes that came after him (the first few weight classes set the tone for the meet, and it's easy for the upper half of the weights to wrestle their best when the lower weights have staked out an early lead). He sought out as many matches as possible, both varsity and JV, to improve as much as possible; he went out on the mat for ASIJ 27 times, the most of any returning wrestler and 3rd after only Egan and Zenon, who attended an extra tournament last year. His record reflected the improvement as he started off the season 3-7 in his first 10 matches but finished on a relative tear at 7-4 in his last 11 matches, including a pin of his Humphreys foe in his last bout of the season, without which the prospects of a 3rd place team finish for ASIJ would have diminished significantly. conference record in 2018-19: 3-1 (.750) dual meet record in 2018-19: 7-4 (.636) overall varsity record in 2018-19: 10-11 (.476) pins recorded in 2018-19: 5 (more than 13 other Mustangs with varsity matches) takedowns recorded in 2018-19: 12 2018-19 tournament placewinner: Kanto Plain - 3rd, Far East - 4th Outlook: During the summer, he grew more than I had expected; there's no way he's wrestling 108 this season. He participated in Japanese club wrestling and is running cross country in the fall sports season to prepare for the potentially tougher competition at a little higher weight class this year. If he can maintain the same improvement trajectory he launched into his freshman year, it's easy to predict podium finishes at tournaments and continued solid contributions to the team in dual meets this season. After a tremendous 2018-19 season, many Mustangs have shown a desire to turn the so-close-you-can-taste-it finishes into actually savoring the sweet taste of championships. I'll post some of the summer activities of ASIJ wrestlers in an attempt to give a peek into their commitment to individual improvement and, therefore, even better team results.
Michiru - as a freshman thrust into the starting varsity lineup, it was quickly apparent that he was no patsy put into the lineup before his time. He did great in conference and in dual meets overall, winning some with skill, some with power, and some against same-level opponents with sheer heart - very memorable. He took his share of lumps, too, but showed a true depth of character in sticking it out and giving a win-worthy effort against even the toughest at 129. He got better as the season went on; after starting 5-5 in his first 10 matches, he finished 7-3 in his last 10. Some good finishes in season-end tournaments nicely complimented his strong dual meet performance. conference record in 2018-19: 2-1 (.667) dual meet record in 2018-19: 7-3 (.700) overall varsity record in 2018-19: 12-8 (.600) pins recorded in 2018-19: 6 (#2 of freshmen) takedowns recorded in 2018-19: 37 2018-19 tournament placewinner: Kanto Plain - 3rd, Far East - 4th Outlook: During the summer, he "took mental reps" and grew in wisdom and stature (actually I haven't seen him yet this school year, so this is a little bit of an uneducated guess). There is no question, however, that he will be a key returning member of the varsity lineup. With two seniors who accounted for a total of 5 of his losses last year graduating from Kinnick and Humphreys, he has a realistic path to some tremendous success this season for himself and the team if he shows some reasonable improvement over last year and avoids upsets with smart wrestling. Bottom line: bright future for this one. |
PhilSend me a note at [email protected] if you have ideas for a story or corrections/additions to these write-ups. Archives
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