As the first competitions of the 2021-22 season draw near, let's take a look back at the remarkable progress the ASIJ Mustangs have made as a team over the last several years. After that let's see if we can't make some 100% accurate, completely infallible predictions about the upcoming season.
It's plain to see a strong upward trajectory for the Mustangs. When Ira and Rin (class of '20) were freshmen, they were part of a team that was an easy out for opponents. The following year, the team overachieved for an even overall dual meet record and a winning record in the Kanto Plain Association of Secondary Schools (KPASS) conference. Then, starting in the 2018-19 season, ASIJ achieved parity with conference bullies Kinnick and St. Mary's, earning a 4-3 record in 7 dual meets against the pair over the next two seasons. In 2019 the Mustangs placed 3rd at a Far East where each of the top 3 teams would have traded places with each other if one match had gone differently for their team and, had injury issues not affected the 2020 Far East, I project that ASIJ would have taken 2nd in both the individual and team tournaments.
2021-22 Season Bold Predictions: Without competition last year, it's very difficult to glean much from past results. Too many graduated, moved out/moved in, and started up their wrestling career on the teams in the KPASS conference and the other DOD schools. But, there is some existing background and, combined with a little new info out there, we can put together a few thoughts about the history and outlook of ASIJ's potential competitors. - Zama (KPASS/DODEA): History - Used to be the boss of the conference. Small team with a few strong wrestlers that showed great improvement throughout the 2019-20 season. Finished #5/6 in KPASS dual meet and tournament standings. Lone KPASS dual meet victory was 49-9 win over CAJ (for reference, ASIJ beat CAJ 44-13 that year). Was #10/14 at Far East individual and #4/8 in D2 dual tournament (higher place against more teams than KPASS Finals a couple weeks earlier). Outlook - has small-ish team again this year, but pretty close to being able to field a wrestler at every weight class. Very little significant returning experience, but a couple of interesting move-ins. Healthy middle school program will help numbers & experience in the future. Predicted KPASS finish: #5/6 - Christian Academy in Japan (KPASS): History - Had very strong teams a few years ago. In 2019-20 had small team with a dedicated coach and some hard core supporters. Finished #6/6 in KPASS dual meet and tournament. Not enough wrestlers to fill out a full lineup (i.e. give up lots of forfeits, so dual meets are almost mathematically lost before they begin), but had a couple Far East podium placers, good for #12/14, and finished #6/8 in the D2 team tournament. Outlook - Likely a small team again this year with a few tough outs and several new wrestlers, but will likely not be competitive in dual meets because of giving up too many forfeits. Has a middle school program. Predicted KPASS finish: #6/6 - Yokota (KPASS/DODEA): History - Program that has grown into the top D2 team in the Far East. However, in 2019-20 couldn't keep up with the KPASS D1 schools, finishing #4/6 in conference dual meet standings as well as the season-ending tournament. Was close with MC Perry throughout the season, finishing just ahead of them at the 2020 Far East in both individual (#5/14) and team (#1/6) in D2. Outlook - With over 30 wrestlers in the room this year, I project they'll have few, if any, holes in their lineup. They have about six returning wrestlers, one of whom placed at the Far East in 2020, to anchor their squad. The Panthers will be a formidable foe this season. Predicted KPASS finish: duals #2/6, tournament #3/6 - Kinnick (KPASS/DODEA) (Yokosuka): History - One of the top teams in KPASS and the Far East over the last decade. In 2019-20, lost to ASIJ but beat St. Mary's to finish tied for #1/6 in dual meets but a close #3/6 at the KPASS tournament. 2020 Far East #3 individual and #2 D1 team (very close with ASIJ & St. Mary's all year). Outlook - Will likely field a full or close-to-full team. Two returning wrestlers, one of whom took #2 at the last Far East and is the favorite to win it this year. Expect the many new wrestlers to improve, but may take a year or two to reach their potential. Predicted KPASS finish: #4/6 (lowest in probably 15 years) - St. Mary's (KPASS): History - The other top team in KPASS and the Far East for years. In 2020 beat ASIJ but lost to Kinnick to finish tied for #1/6 in KPASS dual meets, and squeaked out a #1/6 finish in the tournament. #2/14 Far East individual but #4/6 in D1 duals (ASIJ, Kinnick, and St. Mary's were very close to each other all season). Outlook - Project holes at some weight classes, but very strong wrestlers at others. Predicted KPASS finish: #3/6 dual meet, #2/6 tournament - American School in Japan (KPASS): History - Was the dominant team at one time. After a swoon, followed by a recent upswing, finished very close to the top of the heap in 2019-20 season. Won Yokota tournament (non-conference). Lost to St. Mary's but beat Kinnick to finish tied for #1/6 in KPASS regular season, close #2/6 in tournament. Far East #4/14 individual and D1 team #3/6 (despite 2 lineup holes due to injury). Outlook - Over 30 wrestlers at the start of the season, led by the most accomplished class ('22) in memory, including four(!) returning Far East placewinners - Kaisei (101, 5th), Bryce (108, 1st), Take (129, 2nd), and Shawn (158, 5th), and several other key contributors from the 2019-20 season. This will be a formidable group, with some interesting move-ins and new wrestlers. Predicted KPASS finish: #1/6 (yes, I'm a total hometown fan, but ASIJ returns more and better wrestlers than any other KPASS team for a core that can drive the new Mustang wrestlers to great overall success) Bonus Section - Edgren (DODEA) (Misawa): Coach is a legend with a record 11 D2 Far East titles credited to him. Smaller teams recently. Always have a couple tough kids. A couple returning as their core with a healthy influx of 10 freshmen that will open the door for more success in the years to come. - Matthew C Perry (DODEA) (Iwakuni): Competitive in D2, nearly taking titles from Yokota in 2019-20. A few returning wrestlers who saw time as freshmen and sophomores will be the base for a rebuild. New coach. - E.J. King (DODEA) (Sasebo): On again, off again program with small numbers when they're on, will be off this year. If you ever see one of their wrestlers, give some encouragement. The Far East is better with them there. The above DODEA Pacific schools are all PAC-East. PAC-West includes all the Korea and Guam DODEA schools. PAC-South schools with wrestling programs are Kadena and Kubasaki (Camp Foster). None of these schools look like they'll be able to travel officially to events on Honshu, but we saw them (especially the Okinawa schools) send "club" teams to Tokyo for some of the fall sports competitions. In case they do for wrestling: - Kadena: #7/14 individual and #6/6 D1 team at 2020 Far East. However, they did have a Far East champ and a placewinner, both of whom return this year, as well as several others with varsity experience (the Sato-Marsh twins wrestle with the boys and are strong and fundamentally sound in the lower weights) for as veteran a team as you can get. New coach was #2 at Far East in his HS days. - Kubasaki: Ran away with the Far East individual and team titles in 2019-20 (1/14, 1/6 D1, not even close). Three placewinners from that team are still there to lead and guide all the new wrestlers. New coach. As with any prediction or ranking, these mean nothing once the wrestlers step on the mat. Our Mustangs will need good conditioning, continuously improving technique and skills, and good effort and attitude to achieve what may be possible, after so many close calls in recent seasons: to reach the top and be undisputed champions!
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Next to running, wrestling is the oldest sport in the history of the world. Jacob famously wrestled an angel in the Old Testament, and in one of Greek mythology's most fascinating stories, we saw Odysseus wrestling Ajax The Greater in a high stakes match. Exploits of uncommon individuals are not confined to antiquity. The University of Wisconsin's Lee Kemp dominated the college (NCAA champ in 1976, 77, 78, beat Dan Gable) and world (youngest US champ, 1st US 3x world champ) scenes a few decades ago. The current reigning Junior World Champion is UW freshman Braxton Amos, and that's just a couple modern day stars from one university! At ASIJ, from the head of school to the athletic director to coaches to recent graduates, the tales of their wrestling exploits could fill pages. This year's crew will chisel their history into the annals of this great sport. In order for the casual fan to understand what's unfolding before their eyes on the modern day wrestling mat, let's go through a few basics of wrestling. There are three main styles you will probably hear about: freestyle, Greco-Roman, and folkstyle (or collegiate). Freestyle and Greco-Roman are international styles used at the Olympics and other worldwide competitions. Girls/womens wrestling in the US also uses freestyle. The primary style for US boys/mens wrestling at the high school and college levels is folkstyle. All have slightly different rules, but ASIJ and the teams we compete with use freestyle, so that will be the focus for this article. One match consists of 2 periods totaling 6 minutes. In the first period, both wrestlers start in the neutral position (see Jacob and the Angel painting). It lasts 3 minutes. After a short break, the second 3-minute period starts, with both wrestlers again in the neutral position. The primary objective of a wrestling match is to pin (both shoulders to the mat) your opponent. The secondary objective is to score points. Oftentimes, scoring points becomes the primary objective, because it can be hard to pin skillful opponents. Matches do not end in ties, so there are criteria to determine the winner of matches that are tied at the end of regulation. On the other hand, the match is stopped and a technical superiority or technical fall (fall = pin) is declared if you go ahead by 10 or more points. Points are awarded for takedowns (put the opponent on the mat, be on top, and be in control - 2 pts), throws or 4-pt takedowns (a takedown that puts the opponent to their back - 4 pts), reversals (go from the bottom to the top - 1-2 pts, depending on the situation), exposures (opponent's back is exposed to the mat, no matter how briefly - 2 pts), out-of-bounds or push out (opponent steps out of bounds, often because of pressure - 1-pt). There are also penalty points for passivity (starts with warning, then a 30-sec timer to score or opponent receives 1-pt) and to penalize illegal moves, but they are relatively rare. Now that we know how an individual match works, let's look at team scoring. There are two main types of competition, dual meets and tournaments.
In dual meets, two teams go head to head at each of the 13 weight classes. Victory by pin or forfeit or walkover (can't field a wrestler at a weight class) adds 5 team pts. A technical fall victory leads to 4 team points. Winning on points (including a tie decided by criteria) garners 3 points for your team. Therefore, ASIJ's score against Yokota in the 2019-20 season opening dual meet on 4 Dec 2019 can be calculated as follows: - 10 pins or forfeits received x 5 pts = 50, 1 win by tech fall x 4 pts = 4 (50 + 4 = 54) - 1 tech fall loss x 4 pts = 4, 1 forfeit given x 5 = 5 (4 + 5 = 9) - Mustangs post a 54-9 win for the dual meet against the Panthers Short version: the more impressive the individual victory, the more points the team receives. Most dual meets also have exhibition matches where JV Mustangs go against the opponent's JV wrestler at their weight class or, depending on numbers of students who didn't wrestle on each team, you may see varsity-vs-JV, wrestle-up/down-a-weight, or same-team JV matches. These don't count for the team score, but they do provide valuable opportunities for the JV wrestler to gauge their level and to try out new skills learned in practice in a real match against an (oftentimes) unfamiliar foe. Tournaments have a bracket for each weight class, complete with seeding and byes. Most tournaments are some variation of double elimination, where you must lose twice to be out. This allows for a vibrant back side of the bracket for 3rd, 5th, 7th, etc. depending on the exact style of the tournament. The major tournaments are the Kanto Finals (KPASS conference) and the Far East (all international and DOD schools from Japan, Okinawa, and Korea) tournaments. Tournament scoring is fairly complex, but simply winning is rewarded (as opposed to winning spectacularly, which helps in a dual meet), so the higher the place, the more team points it's worth. There are several other tournaments throughout the year, including open tournaments which give a chance for non-varsity wrestlers on the team to wrestle. Sometimes this leads to the interesting situation of pitting the starter at a weight class against the backup from the same school. This season may see some of the rules slightly modified, dual meet schedules may shift, and the number of tournaments may be different than in past years. However, the opportunity to grow and progress in practice and to represent the school and yourself in intra-school competitions will put these Mustangs into the same category as Jacob, Odysseus, Lee Kemp, Braxton Amos, and all the Mustang greats who have etched their stories into ASIJ history. ASIJ ended the 2019-20 season as co-conference champs (for the first time since 2007) and a 3rd place finish at the team Far East, topped off by being presented the Team Sportsmanship Award.
And then COVID-19 (boo, hiss). But now, the wrestling practice room is alive with excitement (and pushups), competition schedules are being finalized, and Mustangs are figuring out weights and preparing for wrestle-offs. What we know now is the first action of the season will be on Dec 4, when ASIJ hosts a dual meet against St. Mary's. As both teams were co-champs in the 2019-20 season, the winner will have the early inside track to finish the season as the Kanto Plain Association of Secondary Schools (KPASS) conference champ. In terms of individuals, there is a healthy cohort of senior leadership that came in together as the strongest freshman class of wrestlers in the Carlson/Suzuki era. Mich, Shawn, and Take are the team captains who will look to lead by word and deed with career best performances. The juniors are headlined by Bryce, defending Kanto and Far East champ, as well as a bunch of wrestlers who contributed to the varsity team as freshmen and showed great promise on JV. In addition to the known quantities (who all seem to have gotten bigger than the last time you saw them...), there are new faces in not only the freshmen and sophomores, but also in the upper classes. These Mustangs will be the training partners for the varsity team, they'll push for and sometime win the varsity spot at their weight class, compete in exhibition/JV matches and open tournaments, and be the ready fill-in in case a varsity wrestler is out for a competition. Coach Carlson and Coach Suzuki will have everything running in order, maximum risk reduction for health and safety, and otherwise great support from the four(!) junior and senior managers, who will be an awesome addition for the wrestlers, too. While we're all hoping for championships and undefeated records, the fact that this season is happening is so wonderful. The world's second oldest sport (next to running) is back in US and Japan HS, college, and club levels, so it's great to see KPASS and DODEA schools regain the opportunity, too! |
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