Here is a PDF version of each weight bracket and the team scores spreadsheet, followed by a picture version. After all the pictures, I end with some opinion and commentary on what I found interesting in the brackets and overall tournament. See below posts for abbreviations, and some who, what, how, why, etc. explanations. Short version: it's just for fun because the real Far East was canceled and because I had the expertise available to turn all the kids into fighter jets. Many thanks to those JASDF 1000-pound brains for their willingness to lend their abilities to this exercise.
Commentary:
Overall - The winners were pretty unsurprising, even if some did have an unexpected route to the top of the podium. There were a few where I could see a different champ, but I'll discuss those in the weight class sections. The random seeding for each bracket may not have affected the top spots (you figure those kids will win out anywhere they're seeded), but it had a huge affect on #3-#6 and even some who didn't place but would have with a more favorable seeding. 101 - As good as she is, and I've seen them both with my own eyes, I don't see Sato-Marsh beating Campbell in real life. Sometimes you just need to be alive and be the right weight to win in this weight class, but there is some real talent here this year. I could see Lee and McGlothan going the other way and would really like to see that match live. Diaz has faced tough, tougher, and toughest throughout the season, so it was nice to see a win and a podium finish there. 108 - This weight class played out exactly as I would have seeded them coming into the tournament. Shane is way too strong to be at this weight, but he somehow is. Add in his technical skill, and I just don't see anyone coming close. Campbell is underweight, and Sato-Marsh is very good, so I could see their match going the other way in real life. With everyone placing, the lesson here is to recruit lightweight kids for your team next year. Even if they don't develop quickly or have a natural knack for the sport, they can still get you forfeit wins in dual meets, and they might even place at tournaments. 115 - This might be the bracket I have the least confidence in. I could see Smith beating everyone who placed ahead of him. Pyryt could place higher, Hughes would almost certainly place, Titov vs Hamilton might turn out differently, and on and on. Could we have an exhibition round-robin competition with just these wrestlers? I'd love to see that. 122 - I have no problem with Aguirre and Junker at the top. They both looked great, but not unbeatable, in limited action this year. Mitchell (great name if you're in the Air Force - Billy Mitchell is known as the Father of the Air Force) is a solid third in my book, but the places below him might be in different order in real life. Donnelly might be better than his limited stats projected, and Miller could also realistically place. 129 - While I'm fairly satisfied with this one (no one's beating Clement this year), considering the fact that Rodrigues squeaked by Shaver 12-11 in their last real match, and with the Chandler data being so thin, I could see #2 through Toyokawa all switching places with each other. 135 - The Williams-->Minks-->Alvord order played out in the last tournament those three were in, so the model was accurate to real life there. I've not no problem believing that Carillo could be somewhere in that list of wrestlers, too. Could someone else come in at #5 or #6 instead? (Rowberry? Van Dam? Fenwick? Johnson?) Probably. Could Williams challenge the top two? With a 10-0 record, all by tech or pin, he dominated the DODEA competition. The eye test says yes, too, so let's just say the top three are the right people, but the order is up in the air, at least in my mind. 141 - Considering the seeding, I love the way this bracket turned out. Owens and Rose should have met in the finals, but sometimes that happens with random seeds. I'd like to see them wrestle in real life. Could some of the other matches have gone the other way? Sure, but these outcomes are very much within the realm of possibility the way they ended up. 148 - Wray and Rannow both only lost once the whole year, completely commanding every other match they wrestled. I wish I would have put them in the same bracket at the Azabu Open (didn't know Wray was that good until it was too late). Zoot was winning this, so no questions there, at least from me. For #4-6, I'd be very open to arguments for Kinney placing and for switching a couple more places in those three slots. 158 - A 5-1 Owens (L to Harrison, #6 at 148) vs a 6-3 Hernandez (L to #1 Chapman, #2 Inoue, #2 at 180 Thomson) could go the other way, as could Tackney vs Kendrick (Tackney won their last match 20-16). I don't see Chapman losing to anyone in this bracket in real life (not close), but Inoue did score on him... which is another indicator that these two have a pretty solid lock on the top two spots in real life, too. 168 - Leon Guerrero losing is not something you have seen for years. On the other hand, Curtis (sometimes the PCS/move cycle gives, sometime it takes away; he was a good move-in for ASIJ) is very fast and passes the eye test with flying colors. I'd pay money to see them in wrestle an exhibition match for fake champion of the Far East. Places 3-10 are WIDE open in my book. If any of those listed in this bracket made a strong push at the end of the season in real life, I could see them placing, even as high as #3. 180 - This is a realistic scenario. However, as I said yesterday, this bracket could go a lot of ways in real life. Robottom, Harbert, and Kanemura could all challenge for #1. Puterbaugh doesn't have results from this year that directly connect to the main DODEA Pac East data pool, but figuring he's gotten better than the last time I saw him two years ago, his #1 passes the eye test for me. 215 - I can't see anyone challenging Dobberfuhl here, so I'm good with #1. For #2, I'd probably have Askins, who showed tremendous improvement throughout the season and ended very strong in real life. I could see Araya as #3, too. The rest are almost a toss-up from what I've seen. Dudley didn't place in the scenario, but he'd likely make some noise in real life. HWT - Exactly as I'd predict for this weight class. I don't think you'd get much argument from anyone else, either. You could copy/paste the "just need a body" comment from the lower weights to this one, too. There are big kids walking around the school. They just need to be recruited by their (smaller) peers. A live body would have taken 6th. Team - Is anyone surprised that Kinnick came out on top, tied with the American School in Japan? Both schools had three champs. That was probably Kinnick's ceiling, and ASIJ could have taken a couple more. However, Kinnick placed in 11/13 weight classes (i.e strong across the board), while ASIJ was more feast-or-famine with 9/13 weight classes garnering points (think that "just be alive" thing is dumb? ASIJ would have been 2nd without a rookie taking 5th at HWT, with Kinnick as the sole champ). St. Mary's was right there with the top-3 finish. The big surprise in the big schools was the Kubasaki drop-off. After being so dominating in the 2020 Far East (it was not close; they were clearly a level above everyone else), you've got to figure your best kids are mostly upperclassmen, so after two years they either PCS'ed or graduated...or there weren't enough data points to rate them properly (i.e. could be underrated in this scenario). Yokota takes the D-2 title by one point over MC Perry. Where have we heard that story before? (Hint: just about every year) These two are still king of the D-2 hill. The big story here was EJ King. Going from no team to six placewinners is an incredible feat. That is a team to watch in the coming years. One big caveat to this whole thing: there are no Korea teams. We just couldn't get the Korea data tied closely enough to the main pool to have anywhere near valid results. They always have a ringer or two at each weight class, and it's not someone you've gone against three times before during the season, so they're doing things you might not have seen before. Well, that's the end. Hope you enjoyed this virtual Far East. If you did better than you thought, print the shirts and hang the banners! If not, just dismiss it as noisy data that gave a stray result in your case (and work hard in the off season to get better to make sure these results don't come true).
3 Comments
There is a picture version and a more clear PDF version of each bracket through the first 20 matches (of a possible 32). After all the pictures, there is a little commentary from me. A couple notes: - Each bracket was seeded by random draw. As you will see, that had a big impact in some weight classes. - Remember that this is one of 16 possibilities for each match, not necessarily the "most likely" possibility. - Head-to-head matchups were weighted the most heavily. Without listing all of the variables and their importance, I'll just note that logic (if a>b and b>c, then a>c) and strength of schedule (i.e. opponents' records) also played a role. We couldn't find a good proxy for forfeit/walkover wins, so those were not considered. - Abbreviations: ASJ-ASIJ (Tokyo), CAJ-Christian Academy in Japan (Tokyo), Edg-Edgren (Misawa), EJK-EJ King (Sasebo), Kad-Kadena, Kin-Kinnick (Yokosuka), Kub-Kubasaki (Camp Foster), MCP-MC Perry (Iwakuni), STM-St. Mary's (Tokyo), Yok-Yokota, Zam-Zama
Commentary:
101 - I would have seeded Campbell and Sato-Marsh as my #1 & #2 seeds, so the top half of the bracket is getting a break here. Lee vs Tovar is one I'd like to see in real life. Not much action yet. 108 - Not much has happened yet. Campbell, Sato-Marsh (those two sound familiar?) and Shane would be my top three seeds, so I think the random seeding of this bracket shook out just fine. 115 - Titov, Hamilton, and Smith would be my top three in this bracket, so to see Titov be in wrestlebacks after his first match is a surprise. Heinrich over Mack is one I wouldn't have predicted. Hughes got a tough draw against Smith first round and then suffered an upset loss to Pyryt. This bracket has been crazy so far. 122 & 135 - Pretty much chalk. No real surprises so far. 141 - I'd have Rose and Owens as my top two seeds, so the bottom half draws got the harder opponents. Other than that, none of the results stand out as surprising to this point. 148 - I really like how the semi-finalists turned out, pretty much exactly as predicted. I think Kinney does better with a more favorable draw, but his was brutal in this scenario. 158 - Kurt Chapman suffers his first loss in forever! In my intro below, I alluded to 1/16 scenarios showing him losing, and this was it. Tackney just won the DODEA Pacific-East championship, so he's no slouch, but this match probably goes the other way 15/16 times in real life. Besides being a full bracket (no teams had a hole at this weight), the competitors are also a pretty strong bunch across the board, so there are lots of near 50/50 matches. 168 - Curtis and Leon Guerrero are my two top seeds, so they're meeting a round too early, in my view. 3rd-6th places are totally up for grabs with no surprises in the back side of the bracket so far. 180 - There's no standout #1 in this weight, so there are lots of opportunities to place. I'd like to see Thomson vs Harbert and, well, all of them, in real life. 215 & HWT - Chalk, no surprises. I would have given Dobberfuhl and Sales the #1 seeds with the rest up for debate in their respective weight classes, so it was interesting to see them both end up in that spot in the random draw. With the last of the schools wrapping up their seasons on Saturday, wrestlers are left wondering, "What if the Far East schools in Japan - from Edgren in the north to Kubasaki in the south - had wrestled a pretty-much-normal season, complete with a season ending tournament, like their US and Japanese high school counterparts? Who would win the Far East?" That, of course, is unknowable because the Far East never happened. But what if it had? Well, let's find out! If we compile the results printed in the Stars and Stripes, along with some extra information provided by coaches, we can do as ESPN did for the canceled 2020 March Madness tournament: simulate it. The military does simulations frequently to test out different strategies, to measure the effect of new technologies, and even to see which fighter jet would win in one-on-one encounters (i.e. dogfights). The Koku-Jieitai (Japan Air Self-Defense Force) has a schoolhouse dedicated to professional military education, complete with experts who can recreate just about any situation or scenario. A few f those experts from Meguro Base (Tokyo) agreed lend their talents to do up a simulated Far East, with the results published here. Each of the wrestlers was converted into a fighter jet, with their stats (W/L, scores, pins, techs, times, 4-pt takedowns, etc.) representing various aircraft capabilities. For some wrestlers there was less "intelligence" available than for others. That can be treated as a new fighter jet that has seen some action (i.e. win/loss), but its full capabilities are unknown (pin? close, one-point win on a controversial call? great on takedowns, but can't pin? etcetera, etcetera). Running 10,000 scenarios is a common practice that can reveal the most likely outcomes. However, doing that with this virtual Far East would likely produce something fairly obvious like, "Kadena's Kurt Chapman takes 1st at 158," so we did essentially the opposite. There were 16 scenarios for each individual match, and one of those was selected at random. For example, if Chapman had a 95% chance of winning a certain matchup, 15 of the 16 scenarios would have that outcome (12 pins, 2 tech falls, and 1 decision, to be exact). But, every match starts 0-0, and upsets do happen. In order to do the whole tournament in one run (instead of one round of matchups, then a new set of opponents and a new round of matches, repeated until all places are determined), all wrestlers were pitted against all others. The brackets were then completed based on those results. That methodology produced many unusable results, but some were pretty fun, like Chapman (7-0 at 158) vs his teammate Mizuki Sato-Marsh (3-0 at 101). Unfortunately, this methodology also made it uninteresting to do a dual meet tournament; there is only one head-to-head result selected from the 16 possibilities, so it'd be the same result in a dual meet as in the individual tournament. Because the season was so stilted and shortened (or lengthened), some imperfect information was intentionally added. This included data from modified dual meets (e.g. "takedowns only" CAJ vs St. Mary's dual meet on 2 Dec), non-DODEA/KPASS sanctioned competition (e.g. Azabu Open), and a small amount of results from two years ago. On the other hand, the Korean schools were excluded, because there were not enough inter-school data points with the main body of data in Japan. The Rumble on the Rock, Beast of the East, and Far East results from years past provide a little, but that data is old (i.e. less reflective of current capabilities). This year's Azabu Ward Open provided a wealth of data that the supercomputers could use, so the Okinawa school and the international school data pools are sufficiently linked to the main pool of DODEA-Pac East schools. Lineups were either provided by the coaches, the wrestlers themselves, or determined by the last competition for each team, as published in Stars and Stripes. Any holes in a team's lineup at that point were filled to the extent possible at our discretion. That may have created some unlikely or awkward lineups, but artificially inserting a person with some wrestling experience during the season is more interesting than a bye. Well, that's as much explanation as there will be, so just sit back and enjoy (or argue about) the results! The first rounds will come out on Monday, 21 Feb. Fresh faces and grizzled veterans gathered with their coaches at the ASIJ theater to celebrate the most valuable, most improved, and sportmanship award winners in each of the winter season sports on Tuesday, Feb 15.
The wrestling team awards, presented by Adam Carlson (coach) and Rei Suzuki (assistant coach), were followed by a team gathering, where the coaches could work some final magic on the team. Award winners were: Most Valuable Player: Michiru Most Improved Player: Connor Sportsmanship: Take Coach's Award: Shawn In a typical year, there are a few obvious candidates for each award (e.g. Rin or Zennon for MVP?), but this year the depth was so great that, for example, Bryce was not an award winner. He led the team in wins (6), techs (5), takedowns (24), and total points scored (65), took 1st in the Azabu Open, and was never threatened, even in his match against a returning Far East champion. And, he's just one of several examples of individuals with great numbers (we had an unbelievable 12 ////TWELVE//// wrestlers who ended the season undefeated!). Instead of listing them all here, suffice it to say, there was an incredibly deep pool of candidates for each award. We'll go through a few stats for each of the big award winners, but those alone do not capture what was happening in the practice room, in the wrestlers' group chat, and in all the other places they could exhibit leadership, growth, and the other intangibles that fill in the blanks between the numbers. After the stats section, you can hear it straight from the horse's mouth in the form of a video of Coach Carlson talking about their choices. Most Valuable: Michiru - team captain, 3-0 (1.000) record, #1 in points allowed (0), #5 in takedowns (10) despite only wrestling three matches, #1 in percent of wins ending in tech fall or pin (100%), leader in all aspects of the sport, if there were a "lifetime achievement award" (i.e. not only for this season), he'd be a shoe-in Sportsmanship: Take Z - team captain, 5-0 (1.000) record (including wins over likely DODEA champ and returning Far East champ), #1 in pins (2), #1 in 4-pt takedowns (8), , #1 in percent of wins ending in tech fall or pin (100%), #2 in total takedowns (15), 1st at Azabu Open Most Improved: Connor - 3-0 (1.000) dual meet record, 4-2 (.667) overall record (only losses to likely Far East champ in normal season from Kubasaki and St. Mary's alum), #1 in 2-pt reversals (1), #2 in most matches wrestled (6), #3 in total takedowns (14), 5th at Azabu Open Coach's Award: Shawn - team captain, 4-1 (.800) record (including wins over likely DODEA placewinners from multiple schools, only loss by 1 pt to college wrestler/Osan grad), allowed zero points in matches against current high school wrestlers, #1 in pins (2), #1 in percent of wins ending in pin (50%), #2 in 2-pt back exposures (5 - see: most pins, pin %), 2nd at Azabu Open https://youtu.be/25E1jv2elUY (video cuts off at the end b/c my phone's memory ran out, you'll need to copy this address and paste it in your web browser yourself...can't figure out how to put a link in here) Team captains spoke to their teammates. Take: https://youtu.be/RcCa2GcSRvM Mich: https://youtu.be/IkOp4W2h6BY Shawn: https://youtu.be/-6UXwiLeBV0 Besides celebrating the 2021-22 season, the coaches also had words of wisdom for the returning wrestlers. Here's assistant coach Rei Suzuki: https://youtu.be/Frq9uMOCfSo The coaches also recognized the team mom and parents for their tremendous support, communication, and all around help in straightening out a zig-zaggety season. They expressed gratitude for the managers, who cleaned up the blood and all the other unheralded tasks that kept things up and running. They mentioned a parent who had taken overly detailed stats, provided wrestlers some "back in the day" semi-inspirational stories and quasi-coaching, and faithfully attended ASIJ competitions for seven years. Here's one more from coach Adam Carlson: https://youtu.be/NOBAUiisIbU The team mom, Angie Curtis, eloquently represented the parents' thoughts about the coaches as she presented them with thank-you gifts. They fought with everything they had to overcome every hurdle placed in front of them to ensure the team actually had a season, and that the boys maintained a positive attitude despite seeing peers in the US and Japanese high schools (and even in some DODEA schools) enjoying normal seasons. Besides all the great wrestling work they did with the boys, the coaches also provided, through spoken word and through demonstrated example, critical non-wrestling skills and attributes that form a firm foundation upon which the young men can build to be a positive contributor in almost any endeavor throughout their lives. It was a dominating performance in ASIJ's first competition in over a month, and the last dual meet of the season. The visiting Mustangs silenced the normally raucous CAJ crowd with five fast pins on the way to a 48-5 thrashing in the Higashi Kurume gymnasium on Saturday. There's not a lot you can say about matches that last less than a minute, so let's just take a look at what was probably going through the minds of the pin-ers during their short seconds on the mat. 129 - Bryce: I wonder if he knows the "nose to knee" yoga pose. I'll teach him right after a TD... 28 seconds. 135 - Mich: Let's see if you can pin someone without getting a takedown. ::26 seconds later:: I guess so. 141 - Julian: Whatever Mich does, I'll do, too, but I like wrestling, so I'll do it in double his time. 53 seconds. 148 - Take Z: Ever seen a duck-under-to-pin? Well, you can now cross that off your bucket list. 15 seconds. 168 - James: As a future father, I'd like a nice cradle. ::38 seconds later:: It works on high schoolers, too! But wait! There's more! Kaisei (115), Connor (158), Shawn (215), and Dylan H (HWT) all did what they needed to be eligible, make weight, and stay healthy at their weight classes. Because CAJ couldn't fill their roster at those weights, each of the Mustangs gained the max five points for the team via forfeit. Of note, Dylan's win was the first of his career as a wrestler, and it was the first for ASIJ at heavyweight this season. Thinking this is all too short? For everyone who was hoping to see long, close, effort-filled matches, Leon (122) and Dylan T (180) gave the people what they wanted. Leon, facing the CAJ captain who he lost a close decision to under modified rules in December, took shot after shot, but none of them ended in points. Down a very comeback-able 4-0 at the end of the first period, he seemed to wear down a little and gave up a few more takedowns before succumbing to a pin midway through the second. Dylan T dug an early 4-0 hole after being thrown to his back, but he avoided the pin to stay alive and start to chip away at his energetic foe. The two combined for 12 takedowns, reversals, and exposures, Dylan getting a few more of them, to end up tied 13-13 with 14 seconds left. A typical single leg takes 7-10 seconds to complete, and it takes a little bit to set it up. Dylan would lose a tie based on criteria so, needing to score, he took a shot, fought through the defense, and got control right at the edge of the mat, right as the buzzer sounded. Everyone looked at the ref... TAKEDOWN! Dylan won 15-13. (whoo!!! whew!!!) For the JV matches after the varsity dual meet, several CAJ varsity wrestlers were willing to go again to give the Mustangs some matches. ASIJ went 5-3 along with a Mustang vs Mustang match. Leo put up a good fight but couldn't get anything to work on offense, eventually falling by tech fall 11-0. Gregor looked fantastic as he scored and scored and scored and scored on the CAJ captain until finally pinning him in the 2nd period. Kaisei was totally dominant, controlling territory on the mat, getting a takedown, and flipping his foe for a potential pin. But, he got slightly out of position, got reversed, and gave up the pin. You can bet he wants that one back, and probably wins nine times out of 10. Take K scored takedown after takedown until turning and pinning his opponent, without allowing a point, in the first period. Oskar was in a rock fight, giving up first points but scoring over and over, but giving up just enough to keep it interesting. With less than a minute left in the match, he found an opening and pinned the opponent. Kent, after a few seconds of getting a feel for the foe, took him down and pinned him in less than 30 seconds. In an intra-ASIJ affair, Kaz took down Connor and turned him for a 4-0 lead. It was all Connor after that, though, as Connor scored 14 straight points, including five takedowns, to prevail 14-4 in the 2nd period. Charlie took on a varsity Knight, throwing him for four points twice before eventually falling to a 2nd period pin. Harald lost in a December match full of fireworks to the Knight that Dylan T felled in the literal last second during the dual meet. This time around, however, Harald was ready, giving up only one point before securing a thundering first period pin to close out the action. This was the last time the Mustangs will take the mat this season, so it was great to go out with a dominating team performance over a KPASS rival who, not that long ago, was beating up on ASIJ. You'll "love" that the end of season awards ceremony will be on February 14, right after school. |
Mustang MikeSend a note to [email protected] with ideas for a story or corrections/additions to these write-ups. Archives
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