Here is a PDF version of each weight bracket and the team scores spreadsheet, followed by a picture version. After all the pictures, I end with some opinion and commentary on what I found interesting in the brackets and overall tournament. See below posts for abbreviations, and some who, what, how, why, etc. explanations. Short version: it's just for fun because the real Far East was canceled and because I had the expertise available to turn all the kids into fighter jets. Many thanks to those JASDF 1000-pound brains for their willingness to lend their abilities to this exercise.
Commentary:
Overall - The winners were pretty unsurprising, even if some did have an unexpected route to the top of the podium. There were a few where I could see a different champ, but I'll discuss those in the weight class sections. The random seeding for each bracket may not have affected the top spots (you figure those kids will win out anywhere they're seeded), but it had a huge affect on #3-#6 and even some who didn't place but would have with a more favorable seeding. 101 - As good as she is, and I've seen them both with my own eyes, I don't see Sato-Marsh beating Campbell in real life. Sometimes you just need to be alive and be the right weight to win in this weight class, but there is some real talent here this year. I could see Lee and McGlothan going the other way and would really like to see that match live. Diaz has faced tough, tougher, and toughest throughout the season, so it was nice to see a win and a podium finish there. 108 - This weight class played out exactly as I would have seeded them coming into the tournament. Shane is way too strong to be at this weight, but he somehow is. Add in his technical skill, and I just don't see anyone coming close. Campbell is underweight, and Sato-Marsh is very good, so I could see their match going the other way in real life. With everyone placing, the lesson here is to recruit lightweight kids for your team next year. Even if they don't develop quickly or have a natural knack for the sport, they can still get you forfeit wins in dual meets, and they might even place at tournaments. 115 - This might be the bracket I have the least confidence in. I could see Smith beating everyone who placed ahead of him. Pyryt could place higher, Hughes would almost certainly place, Titov vs Hamilton might turn out differently, and on and on. Could we have an exhibition round-robin competition with just these wrestlers? I'd love to see that. 122 - I have no problem with Aguirre and Junker at the top. They both looked great, but not unbeatable, in limited action this year. Mitchell (great name if you're in the Air Force - Billy Mitchell is known as the Father of the Air Force) is a solid third in my book, but the places below him might be in different order in real life. Donnelly might be better than his limited stats projected, and Miller could also realistically place. 129 - While I'm fairly satisfied with this one (no one's beating Clement this year), considering the fact that Rodrigues squeaked by Shaver 12-11 in their last real match, and with the Chandler data being so thin, I could see #2 through Toyokawa all switching places with each other. 135 - The Williams-->Minks-->Alvord order played out in the last tournament those three were in, so the model was accurate to real life there. I've not no problem believing that Carillo could be somewhere in that list of wrestlers, too. Could someone else come in at #5 or #6 instead? (Rowberry? Van Dam? Fenwick? Johnson?) Probably. Could Williams challenge the top two? With a 10-0 record, all by tech or pin, he dominated the DODEA competition. The eye test says yes, too, so let's just say the top three are the right people, but the order is up in the air, at least in my mind. 141 - Considering the seeding, I love the way this bracket turned out. Owens and Rose should have met in the finals, but sometimes that happens with random seeds. I'd like to see them wrestle in real life. Could some of the other matches have gone the other way? Sure, but these outcomes are very much within the realm of possibility the way they ended up. 148 - Wray and Rannow both only lost once the whole year, completely commanding every other match they wrestled. I wish I would have put them in the same bracket at the Azabu Open (didn't know Wray was that good until it was too late). Zoot was winning this, so no questions there, at least from me. For #4-6, I'd be very open to arguments for Kinney placing and for switching a couple more places in those three slots. 158 - A 5-1 Owens (L to Harrison, #6 at 148) vs a 6-3 Hernandez (L to #1 Chapman, #2 Inoue, #2 at 180 Thomson) could go the other way, as could Tackney vs Kendrick (Tackney won their last match 20-16). I don't see Chapman losing to anyone in this bracket in real life (not close), but Inoue did score on him... which is another indicator that these two have a pretty solid lock on the top two spots in real life, too. 168 - Leon Guerrero losing is not something you have seen for years. On the other hand, Curtis (sometimes the PCS/move cycle gives, sometime it takes away; he was a good move-in for ASIJ) is very fast and passes the eye test with flying colors. I'd pay money to see them in wrestle an exhibition match for fake champion of the Far East. Places 3-10 are WIDE open in my book. If any of those listed in this bracket made a strong push at the end of the season in real life, I could see them placing, even as high as #3. 180 - This is a realistic scenario. However, as I said yesterday, this bracket could go a lot of ways in real life. Robottom, Harbert, and Kanemura could all challenge for #1. Puterbaugh doesn't have results from this year that directly connect to the main DODEA Pac East data pool, but figuring he's gotten better than the last time I saw him two years ago, his #1 passes the eye test for me. 215 - I can't see anyone challenging Dobberfuhl here, so I'm good with #1. For #2, I'd probably have Askins, who showed tremendous improvement throughout the season and ended very strong in real life. I could see Araya as #3, too. The rest are almost a toss-up from what I've seen. Dudley didn't place in the scenario, but he'd likely make some noise in real life. HWT - Exactly as I'd predict for this weight class. I don't think you'd get much argument from anyone else, either. You could copy/paste the "just need a body" comment from the lower weights to this one, too. There are big kids walking around the school. They just need to be recruited by their (smaller) peers. A live body would have taken 6th. Team - Is anyone surprised that Kinnick came out on top, tied with the American School in Japan? Both schools had three champs. That was probably Kinnick's ceiling, and ASIJ could have taken a couple more. However, Kinnick placed in 11/13 weight classes (i.e strong across the board), while ASIJ was more feast-or-famine with 9/13 weight classes garnering points (think that "just be alive" thing is dumb? ASIJ would have been 2nd without a rookie taking 5th at HWT, with Kinnick as the sole champ). St. Mary's was right there with the top-3 finish. The big surprise in the big schools was the Kubasaki drop-off. After being so dominating in the 2020 Far East (it was not close; they were clearly a level above everyone else), you've got to figure your best kids are mostly upperclassmen, so after two years they either PCS'ed or graduated...or there weren't enough data points to rate them properly (i.e. could be underrated in this scenario). Yokota takes the D-2 title by one point over MC Perry. Where have we heard that story before? (Hint: just about every year) These two are still king of the D-2 hill. The big story here was EJ King. Going from no team to six placewinners is an incredible feat. That is a team to watch in the coming years. One big caveat to this whole thing: there are no Korea teams. We just couldn't get the Korea data tied closely enough to the main pool to have anywhere near valid results. They always have a ringer or two at each weight class, and it's not someone you've gone against three times before during the season, so they're doing things you might not have seen before. Well, that's the end. Hope you enjoyed this virtual Far East. If you did better than you thought, print the shirts and hang the banners! If not, just dismiss it as noisy data that gave a stray result in your case (and work hard in the off season to get better to make sure these results don't come true).
3 Comments
flipper
2/22/2022 06:54:42 pm
you say James Williams is undefeated but you have him getting 3rd. doesn't make sense
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Phil Dobberfuhl
2/22/2022 07:27:42 pm
That's a great point. Here are a few things to consider when looking at the 135 weight class:
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David Campbell
3/7/2022 04:06:01 pm
This was pretty neat. I like that M.C. Perry was within a point of winning the small school title. Something to shoot for next year.
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