There is a picture version and a more clear PDF version of each bracket through the first 20 matches (of a possible 32). After all the pictures, there is a little commentary from me. A couple notes: - Each bracket was seeded by random draw. As you will see, that had a big impact in some weight classes. - Remember that this is one of 16 possibilities for each match, not necessarily the "most likely" possibility. - Head-to-head matchups were weighted the most heavily. Without listing all of the variables and their importance, I'll just note that logic (if a>b and b>c, then a>c) and strength of schedule (i.e. opponents' records) also played a role. We couldn't find a good proxy for forfeit/walkover wins, so those were not considered. - Abbreviations: ASJ-ASIJ (Tokyo), CAJ-Christian Academy in Japan (Tokyo), Edg-Edgren (Misawa), EJK-EJ King (Sasebo), Kad-Kadena, Kin-Kinnick (Yokosuka), Kub-Kubasaki (Camp Foster), MCP-MC Perry (Iwakuni), STM-St. Mary's (Tokyo), Yok-Yokota, Zam-Zama
Commentary:
101 - I would have seeded Campbell and Sato-Marsh as my #1 & #2 seeds, so the top half of the bracket is getting a break here. Lee vs Tovar is one I'd like to see in real life. Not much action yet. 108 - Not much has happened yet. Campbell, Sato-Marsh (those two sound familiar?) and Shane would be my top three seeds, so I think the random seeding of this bracket shook out just fine. 115 - Titov, Hamilton, and Smith would be my top three in this bracket, so to see Titov be in wrestlebacks after his first match is a surprise. Heinrich over Mack is one I wouldn't have predicted. Hughes got a tough draw against Smith first round and then suffered an upset loss to Pyryt. This bracket has been crazy so far. 122 & 135 - Pretty much chalk. No real surprises so far. 141 - I'd have Rose and Owens as my top two seeds, so the bottom half draws got the harder opponents. Other than that, none of the results stand out as surprising to this point. 148 - I really like how the semi-finalists turned out, pretty much exactly as predicted. I think Kinney does better with a more favorable draw, but his was brutal in this scenario. 158 - Kurt Chapman suffers his first loss in forever! In my intro below, I alluded to 1/16 scenarios showing him losing, and this was it. Tackney just won the DODEA Pacific-East championship, so he's no slouch, but this match probably goes the other way 15/16 times in real life. Besides being a full bracket (no teams had a hole at this weight), the competitors are also a pretty strong bunch across the board, so there are lots of near 50/50 matches. 168 - Curtis and Leon Guerrero are my two top seeds, so they're meeting a round too early, in my view. 3rd-6th places are totally up for grabs with no surprises in the back side of the bracket so far. 180 - There's no standout #1 in this weight, so there are lots of opportunities to place. I'd like to see Thomson vs Harbert and, well, all of them, in real life. 215 & HWT - Chalk, no surprises. I would have given Dobberfuhl and Sales the #1 seeds with the rest up for debate in their respective weight classes, so it was interesting to see them both end up in that spot in the random draw.
2 Comments
Jeremy C.
2/21/2022 11:56:54 pm
Love it! Thanks for creating the Far East simulation ... very creative!
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Phil Dobberfuhl
2/22/2022 03:42:46 am
- It was fun for me, and cathartic after so many starts and stops this season
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